Challenging The Europe - 1. SWANSEA CITY AFC

((( This is a series analysing about the clubs that are in / likely to be in Europe next season (UCL or Europa). The tactics, transfers the clubs must make in order to challenge for a European title, etc )))

First up lets take up the new sensation in EPL, playing beautiful football under the able guidance of Laudrup - SWANSEA CITY. 

 The current team has it all to challenge for a 'European spot' through the league standings. After their 5-0 Championship winning victory over Braford City, Swans have already qualified for the 2013–14 UEFA Europa League Third Qualifying round, which has boosted the club morale tremendously.

Current Squad

But over-reliance on Michu in the attack and Williams and Chico in the defense have started to eat up their early form and victories. 

This is what Swans have to do to challenge at the European level.

Key Areas to be in check for Next Season - 

Centre Back Position:

Heart of Swans' Defense

 Now that most of the top PL clubs like United, Chelsea, Manchester City and even Newcastle have Williams in their radar it would be apt for the Wise-Man Laudrup to fix his defensive pair first, unlike making attack as their priority this summer transfer window as many fans want. Irrespective of Ash's departure, Swans definitely need a good backup in defense, since they will be playing in more fixtures with Europa League, next season. Asking the 34 year old Garry Monk to fit in every week, especially with Europa League to challenge for is bad. Alan Tate is the only proper CB backup Swans have got currently.

Alberto Botia (estimated at 3M Euros) is in the radar of Swansea. But the effect of this 24 year old La Masia graduate is questionable, given the fact that he has to replace one of the finest defenders in EPL currently. He has only made 4 apps so far this season with his current club Sevilla., but he was the main defender at Sporting Gijon for 3 years, until they were relegated to Segunda division. He should probably make a good backup, but definitely not fit enough to be a regular CB in England.

Amorebieta - The best possible CB option for Swansea

But the best buy would be the experienced 28 year old FERNANDO AMOREBIETA (estimated at 8M Euros), the Athletic Bilbao defender. Not only he has got a great physicality, he is also extremely good with tackling and during one - on - one situations. Besides he already has experience at the European level, also having finished up as runner-up in the previous edition of the Europa League. Having linked with clubs like FC Barcelona and Liverpool, the Basque club didn't put him up for sale last season. This time he has once again started to become a hot transfer in his position, after refusing to sign any extension to his contract which expires in 2014.  His experience, strength and eye for tackling makes him the best bet for Swansea to go for this summer.

The Worrying Midfield :

Chances of De Guzman staying is bleak

The Britton and De Guzman (on loan from Villareal) Central Midfield has started to break, since many clubs have started to get used to Swansea's passing around of the ball in the midfield. But with the help of Ki it may not be the main issue to be worried for the coming season. Yet it cannot be overlooked. De Guzman, whom Laudrup trusts highly (even from their Mallorca days) will go back to Villareal, where the Yellow Submarines are likely to regain their Primera spot.
When questioned about De Guzman's stay at Swansea next season, Laudrup just waved it away saying it is something to look out only in the summer. So it looks like his departure is most likely.

Canas beats Ramos for a header

It therefore becomes a major difficulty for Laudrup to find a replacement for the able midfielder. Betis' manager Pepe Mel confirmed already in January that their DM - JOSE CANAS (whose contract expires this year) will be leaving to Swansea this summer. Though it is likely to fall in, because of the Laudrup - Spanish Players chemistry, it is doubtful as to who will take up the role of De Guzman, since he is doing more of Iniesta's role at Barcelona (though there is high varying in degree as to the attacking duty is concerned) when playing in CM and not like any other CM duty. Probably Britton himself has to take that role, moving Ki alongside him with Canas as the CDM.

Canas trying to block a Messi shot

What Canas would offer Swansea is unquestionable defensively. He is probably one of the top 5 CDMs in La Liga, but just like most other talents from Liga, he is lesser known. Besides he is always overshadowed by Benat's versatality, where I would say Canas has been equally important for Betis' position this season. His long balls have caused havoc at every defense Betis has played against. What Swansea has been lacking was a proper CDM and Laudrup signed up Ki initially to fill in that position, but in the process he too has become (an effective) CM instead of CDM. This has allowed many teams like Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal, West Brom (the immediate superior to Swans in the league table) and even West Ham and Norwich City to take advantage of this lag. Hence signing this Betis star would be the best way to solve this midfield crisis.

Buy a Proper Striker to free Michu from his Goal-burden :-

Michu should be relieved from his Goal-Burden

This is a crucial factor. The over-reliance on Michu as the sole striker has started to show its effects on the team. Whenever he failed to deliver, Swans have struggled badly. Though Michu continues with his brilliant scoring form, having the need to involve more in the build up before taking a shot will definitely take a toll on the player as well. Hence the need for a striker.

IAGO ASPAS is rumored to be the "Star Signing" of Laudrup this summer. Already linked with a move to Swansea in the winter, Aspas' agent confirmed that the striker would stay in Celta until summer, but also confirmed that a move to Swansea this summer is most likely despite reported interests from Liverpool, Valencia, Atletico Madrid and Chelsea.

Aspas - The Perfect Man for Swansea

 Aspas is not a typical centre forward, but a forward who also involves in the build ups and creates plenty of chances to his team mates. If you can see the heat map shown below, the work rate of Aspas has been outstanding, and also shows he has at times traded places to the left from the centre.

Aspas in action in the derby against Deportivo

The below chart depicts Aspas' Creative distribution of Chances for Celta's attacks this season. He has created significantly on either side and thrived more in the centre, which incidentally is what is lacking with Swans' attack.

Aspas' Creative distribution of Chances for Celta this season

Though he would probably be costlier than any other signing at Swansea (expected around 8-9 Million Euros) he is probably the best possible solution for Swansea to challenge for a European Cup.

RUMORS AND PROBABILITIES:-


                                                                                (Source - transfermarkt.co.uk and other websites)

PLAYER	CLUB	POSITION	ESTIMATED TRANSFER VALUE (in Million Euros)	PROBABILITY
Iago Aspas	Celta Vigo	CF	8	70 %
Jose Canas	Real Betis	CDM	Nil	100 %
Amorebieta	Athletic Bilbao	CB	8	20 %
Alberto Botia	Sevilla	CB	3	50 %
Mohammed  Abdellaoue	Hannover 96	CF	6	30 %
Mehdi Lacen	Getafe CF	CM	2.5	60 %
Miguel Madera	Getafe CF	CDM	2.5	60 %
Ibrahim Afellay	FC Barcelona	LW	6	5 %
Miku	Celtic FC	CF	4	20 %
Giovani Dos Santos	Real Mallorca	RW	3	30 %
Emilio Nsue	Real Mallorca	CAM	3	30 %
Tomer Hemed	Real Mallorca	CF	3	30 %
Riki	Deportivo	CF	Nil	60 %
Gabriel Tourje	Granada	RW	4	10 %

HOW THE SQUAD WOULD LOOK NEXT SEASON WITH THESE SIGNINGS:-

Best Possible Formation for Next Season :-

1) If De Guzman stays, but Williams moves out

Laudrup is likely to stay put with his 4-5-1 (4-2-3-1 technically) formation. Is Laudrup can convince De Guzman to stay and can also make the above 3 signings, they can even challenge for a UCL spot next season and are most likely to win the Europa League.

Best possible formation for Next Season

2) If De Guzman goes back to La Liga, there are three possible variants that the Dane might use.

A) Williams stays - And all the 3 signings are made :-

In this case, Laudrup can effectively go for a 3-5-2 formation, which is likely to be more effective in attacking than his usual 4-5-1. Since all 3 CBs are very much precautious and well-trained, they will not do any nonsense moves by going forward and leaving the space for attacking behind. Besides Canas will give the additional benefit of clearance and add huge boost to the defense. With both Dyer and Routledge on the pitch, the wings will be stretched as much as possible, which is very much evident in this season itself. With the centre being covered by Hernandez and Britton, it will be easier for Aspas or Michu to go for the goal than in 4-5-1. This formation is highly effective and also highly unlikely.

Most effective, but highly unlikely

B) Williams stays - but only Canas and Aspas are bought :-

In this instance, Laudrup's usual 4-2-3-1 with taylor/Davies in the left back and Rangel going forward in the right, Williams and Chico will remain at the heart of the defense. Canas providing support in the Central Midfield alongside Britton/Ki with Michu being the 'Trequartista' and Aspas, Routledge and Dyer/Hernandez   taking their usual slots. This is the most likely Team for the next season. Here nobody will be playing out of position and this by itself will be effective than the current one.

Effective and very much Likely

C) Williams leaves as well - and only Canas and Aspas are signed :-
This is probably the most riskiest of all possibilities, since defense will be in total peril with only Chico remaining as the effective Centre Back. Hopefully Laudrup ends up signing atleast a backup defender (like Botia) in order to survive all the fixtures effectively.

Most risky formation

SUMMARY:-

1. Buy an effective CB like Amorebieta as a backup/ replacement for Williams.
2. Try to hold De Guzman for one more season.
3. If not, Canas and Britton duo should be delegated their roles specifically, until Canas fits in EPL.
4. Most importantly buy a good striker like Aspas, who will take incharge of the goal duties and relieve Michu from goal-burden.

2) B) is the highly likely formation we would be seeing from Swansea. It is highly likely that Laudrup & Co will give an outstanding season as a treat to the fans with a surprise gift of Europa League win maybe. TRUST is the word for Swans. Hails Swansea, Hail Laudrup.

PS - Given Laudrup's love and preference towards La Liga players, who basically would fit in his tactics and reports from trustable websites, this post has included more La Liga players than others.