FC Bayern Munich v/s FC Barcelona - UCL Semi-Finals - 1st Leg - PREVIEW

UEFA Champion’s League

Semi Finals - !st leg

Match: FC Bayern Munich v/s FC Barcelona

Date: 23^rd April, 2013

Time: 20.45 CET

Venue: Allianz Arena

We all know that FC Bayern Munich and FC Barcelona are two of the strongest teams in Europe. If one team can beat Barca at their own game, without the famous bus, it’s Bayern. If one team can end Bayern’s unbeatable form, it’s Barca. For a neutral fan, this is going to be 180 minutes of holy football. For fans of either of the two teams, I doubt they will have any fingernails left by the time the game ends. Both the teams are very similar in their style and philosophy. Both teams have majority of their players playing for their country as well. Youth system is something both the teams believe in (and the reason why Pep chose Bayern over English teams). Both the teams have hardly met, and personally I am curious to see how the meeting will be. It won’t be so easy to predict, I expect some element of surprise in the game; something none of us can think of.

INJURIES AND SUSPENSION:

Bayern’s squad

Injured: Kross, Badstuber ¦  Suspended: Mandžukić  ¦  One card away from suspension: Lahm, Dante

Barca’s squad

Injured: Puyol, Mascherano  ¦  Suspended: Adriano  ¦  One card away from suspension: Piqué, Alba, Song

BAYERN'S GAME PLAN:

Bayern Starting Lineup

Lineup after Key-subs

Barca’s weakness now is their defence, especially during counter attack. Bayern are decent in that area, so they must make the best of it. Bayern look more confident and sure if they have decent possession, something that even an “out of form” Barcelona won’t let them have. So they will have to get used to playing without much time with the ball. I think the possession will be 40-60, Bayern will not let Barca have much possession either (yes, 60 is very less for Barca :P). Fact that Barcelona have completed 7,220 passes, that’s 2,555 more than the second placed side in that department, Bayern Munich (4,665) proves it.Barcelona have the habit of building up a momentum before a goal. Bayern must be aware of it and break the momentum from time to time. That will break Barca’s confidence to a level. They must try to make the game more aerial and get an edge over Barca’s short players. Set pieces are not really the best thing about Bayern, but it won’t be that tough exploiting Barca’s defence in situations like corner and free kick; being aerial will help them.

On the defence, Messi will be of a real threat. Van Buyten and Dante will not be enough to contain him. Alaba must look out for him too, Messi can play as a pseudo right winger. Martinez will have to retreat back when Messi has the ball to his feet.

Dante must also keep an eye for Iniesta, he is more comfortable on the left. Dante and Lahm must work together to avoid a Messi-Iniesta link-up. If Iniesta finds the slightest of space to pass to Messi, there will most certainly be a goal. It is very difficult to win a tackle with Iniesta, however he must be cut off from the rest of his team.

Both of Barca’s full backs dominate their respective flanks. However, at times Alves or Alba may fail to retract back. Robben and Ribéry must make use of this weakness and create a chance for a goal when Barca’s defence is vulnerable. They both will also have to be fast to retreat when Barca launches an attack. Lahm and Robben must make sure that Alba and Iniesta do not link up. Alaba and Ribéry must prevent an Alves-Messi link-up at all cost.

Piqué-Bartra don’t make a very strong CB pair, Müller and Pizzaro must exploit that. They must stay forward even as the entire team plays deep. Piqué has a habit of going forward and Busquets is slow when it comes to retreating. He doesn't move forward much, so Muller will have to cover him up while Pizzaro deals with the CBs. Bayern must rely on long passes and counters, and the two forwards must take full advantage of any opportunity they get to bag in a goal. Both have an accurate aim at the net. Valdés can save long shots very well, but sometimes panics when the player comes too close to the net. However, Pizzaro and Müller must ensure that they get off-side as less as possible.

I am not sure who will play striker in the game. Pizzaro had a good game, scoring 4 goals out of 9 against Hamburg. Gomez just scored a hattrick in 6 minutes. However, Pizzaro has been more consistant and has 4 goals in 241 minutes in the CL, so I would expect him to start and Gomez to come on as a substitute. However, many people i have spoken to feel that Gomez may get the start; there is a good possibility to that too. He can beat Barca in set-pieces. 

BARCA'S GAME PLAN:

Barca Starting Lineup

Lineup after Key-subs

I know it, you know it, we all know it and we all say it. Barca has been struggling with their defence. Yet, Barca has a record of 4 clean sheets while Bayern has just 3. Unlike Inter, Chelsea and Celtic, I don’t see Bayern parking the famous bus or marking Messi and Iniesta with 5-6 men. Barca will get enough space to keep their tiki-taka going and scoring goals. However, Bayern will fight hard for possession and Barca must ensure to keep more of it. Bayern could lose confidence if they don’t keep the ball enough. Bayern have a similar weakness of conceding set pieces. If Barca could get one corner kick or free kick right, it could do a lot for them. An early goal will help a lot, every time they score in the first 10 minutes; we get to see a very confident Barcelona.

In the defensive side, Piqué and Bartra will have to deal with Pizzaro and Müller. They are not the best of dribblers but are accurate when it comes to getting the ball into the net. Busquets must ensure that the ball doesn’t reach either of them. Piqué must stay back at all times, Bayern have many players who could attack at any time of the game.

Alves and Alba must do their best to keep Ribéry and Robben occupied. Even a little space is enough for them to create havoc. If Alexis is played on the left, he may come handy in keeping them occupied, which Villa may not be able to manage. Both of them must not get carried away while attacking, retreating back from time to time is important.

Busquets will be instrumental in managing the whole defence. He will have to keep Schweinsteiger at bay. Bastian’s influence on the team is huge; we saw the difference in the second leg against Arsenal, where Bayern were almost knocked out. Keeping him quiet will weaken the team.

Bayern will do what everyone does, mark Messi. This is the time Barca’s other forwards must step up. Pedro may not be active, but he can always play the poacher. He is accurate when it comes to kicking the ball into the net. Let Dani Alves do all the hard work and create the perfect chance for Pedro, for this reason I would still play Pedro on the right. Messi could also be instrumental in assisting the pair. On the left, if Villa plays, he tends to shift to the centre while Iniesta can take charge of the left wing.

Barcelona should take a chance and give Tello a start in this big game. He will ease the pressure off Iniesta, who could concentrate more on his mid-fielding duties. The middle is left empty with only Xavi, who seemed a little lethargic in his last few games. I would also like to see Thiago coming on as a substitute if all goes well for Barca. With one of the best mid fielding talent possessed by Bayern, Barca wouldn’t want theirs to fail. I would have liked to see Song play, but given to the yellow card situation, I would save him for the next leg. Both Piqué and Alba have a talent to earn yellows, and Barca already lacks defenders. 

OVER-ALL SITUATION:

Bayern will want to make the best of the first leg. Messi will be completely fit by the second leg and Puyol will make his return in the game. Barcelona will most likely go for a draw in the first leg; they will try not to concede. A lot would depend on which players get suspended in the first leg also. It will be interesting to see which team manages to keep possession. We will witness the best mid fielders up against each other. Hopefully all of them will be in form. Messi vs Neuer will be worth a watch too. I just hope the referees won’t ruin it by being unfair to either team. I am tired of hearing ‘Barca buys the referees and win.’ And I certainly don’t want UEFA Munich to join the ranks of UEFAlona, UEFAdrid and Refrees United.

PREDICTION:

2-2 seems the most likely score in the first leg. Barca will focus more on denying Bayern more goals where as Bayern will try to make the best of the 'home ground' advantage. 

UCL STATISTICS:

Goals: Messi = 8, Müller = 5, Pizzaro = 4

Assists: Xavi = 4, Lahm = 4, Messi = 3

Team	Goals	Goals per match	Goals from Penalty	Goals from header	Goals from inside area	Goals from outside area	Passes completed %	Crosses completed	Ball possession
Bayern	22	2.2	1	3	16	6	76	11/39	57
Barca	18	1.8	1	1	12	5	83	29/46	68

HEAD TO HEAD:

Club Friendlies ‎(FR)‎	Jul 27, 2011	FC Barcelona 2 - FC Bayern München 0
UEFA Champions League ‎(UCL)‎	Apr 14, 2009	FC Bayern München 1 - FC Barcelona 1
UEFA Champions League ‎(UCL)‎	Apr 8, 2009	FC Barcelona 4 - FC Bayern München 0
Club Friendlies ‎(FR)‎	Aug 15, 2007	FC Bayern München 0 - FC Barcelona 1

KEY BATTLES:

P.S - This is my first preview and I needed some help. So I would like to thank my friend Madhav Dutt, a 'closet' Bayern fan to give me a bit of an insight from Bayern's point of view, Sairaam Mahadevan for helping me with the statistics, editing and formatting, and letting me do it at the first place, and Ram S.V to give in some useful critic.