AC Milan v Atletico Madrid: Analysis of Atletico Madrid and how Milan can beat Atletico Madrid

AC Milan, the only remaining Italian team in the Champions League wait for Atletico Madrid who are joint top leaders of La Liga in an exciting clash at San Siro on Wednesday night. After Milan had a disastrous start to the campaign, they have found some momentum under the new coach Clarence Seedorf. Under Seedorf, Milan have got 10 points out of a possible 15 with only Juventus managing to score more (11) in that period. On the other hand, Atletico Madrid have been in scintillating form this season and victory at Santiago Bernabeu was one of the best highlights of their season.

After watching 30 Atletico's match highlights (24 La Liga + 6 CL), I'll be posting some of their strategies which they have followed all throughout this season and various statistics on how Atletico have scored and conceded based on these 30 matches. Talking about the man behind this foundation Diego Simeone, he is a former Internazionale and Atletico Madrid player. He is known to field a very disciplined side at the back. He has created a perfect counter attacking team around their captain Gabi and their talented asset Koke. The quality of the services to their two forwards is something Diego Simeone is certainly proud of. The attacking players love to run between two defensive players of the opposition and the result is mostly indeed a goal.

Atletico's defence has been top notch this season conceding only 19 goals. They have conceded three goals from outside the box. Three of the goals have come after a through pass between the two defensive players and simultaneous conversion from inside the box. This defence has almost been error-proof by conceding only three goals because of bad clearances or mistake by any defender (not including GK here). Thibaut Courtois has been responsible for two blunders which has led to the goal. Atletico have conceded 2 goals from free-kick routine, 2 goals from crosses, 2 penalties, 1 deflected goal and 1 goal from inside the box.

Looking at their attack now, they have scored 74 goals. One of the primary source of their scoring is from their crossing. Their ground crosses have been accurate and either of Raul Garcia or Diego Costa can score from anywhere inside the box. They have scored 23 from crosses which constitutes about 31% of their goals. Another source from where Atletico have benefited is their through balls which accounts to 14 goals out of which 10 goals have been through balls between the two centre backs which have resulted in goals. That's quite a lot, isn't it? Atletico have also been brilliant in dead ball situations which has resulted in 15 goals out of which 8 have been scored from corners and 7 from free-kick positions. They don't rely a lot on penalties as they have scored only 5 goals from the spot. 14 goals from inside the box, 1 own goal and 2 goals scored after taking advantage of the opposition's mistake.

Talking from strategical point of view, Atletico is one of the few teams who totally give justice to 4-4-2 formation. The work rate of the midfielders is immense. Strikers are always ready to make a run across the box and through the defence. Defence line is shielded by none other than their captain Gabi. This team adapts pretty easily to their opposition style of play because of their organisation and they search for that one counter attack which can break the opposition down. When the opposition tries to attack through the wings, their side midfielders drop back to provide extra protection for the full backs which makes difficult to attack from there. When the opposition tries to attack through the middle, the two strikers drop back to help the team with one of their two central midfielder pressing ahead and the other one shielding the back line. This makes it very easy for the team to intercept and Atletico's attack usually begins from the wings.

Atletico initiate the attack sometimes by launching a straight long ball to either Costa or Raul Garcia from defence, the side midfielder takes a run and receives the pass. The side midfielder is supported by the full back who can takeover from him and cross into the box, out of which most of them are ground crosses. The difference maker here is the accuracy of crosses and beating of man-marking to score which makes Atletico so special. They have been doing it a lot this season and often the late runs into the box result in goals which makes this side totally unpredictable in this area. The other characteristic of this team is the creativity in midfield which always has a vision of creating goal scoring chances which they do. They have scored 10 goals from a through ball between the last two defenders. Costa's pace and physical strength is very difficult to deal for the defenders.

                                                Video compilation of how Atletico have scored goals this season   

How the current Milan side can stop Atletico Madrid? The primary objective of Milan tonight should be towards the back 4 organization. The full backs namely Mattia De Sciglio (on the right) and either of Urby Emanuelson or Kevin Constant (on the left) will have to run down the flanks to support the Milan attack since Atletico crowd their wings when the opposition attacks. This will provide Milan wingers some support while going ahead. The centre backs will have to keep in check the runs of the oppositions' attackers and they need not try to setup the offside trap which will cause a huge problem to them. Nigel de Jong will shield the back 4. We can expect him to be playing more as a centre back rather than a defensive midfielder to keep Atletico away from scoring. 

Courtois, on loan from Chelsea has established himself as one of the best goalkeepers of La Liga this season. He is a great shot stopper but sometimes he tends to be nervous while charging ahead and during set-pieces. Mario Balotelli's long range shooting is going to be very essential for Milan and he can test Courtois from distance. 

                                                  He can launch some rockets like these. He does what he wants!

Whenever Atletico cross in the box, Milan needs to crowd the box with many players inside since they are very good in finding spaces inside the box and Milan needs to avoid giving that much space for them to score. Milan are sometimes way often isolated in the attack with Mario alone up front facing 5 opposition players which breaks away the attack right away. Poli and Taarabt have to be very close to Mario whenever he gets the ball. The 12th man of Milan tonight is going to be none other than San Siro. No matter how poor Milan were last year, they did manage to win 2-0 against Barcelona at home. They know how to play against big teams at home. Champions League is Milan's DNA and their impressive performances against Barcelona since the past few years at San Siro prove it.

This match at San Siro is going to be a cracker after Atletico make a comeback into the group stages after 4 years. Experience will be very crucial which might favour Milan but Atletico are in the form of their life which makes this tie more exciting!

Manchester city vs Barcelona - Deconstructing City

                One of the most anticipated clashes of the champions league knock out stages . This is a tactical look ahead of what promises to be a thrilling encounter for all football lovers .

Deconstructing City

                I’m one among many Manuel Pellegrini’s long time admirer . The 4-2-2-2 he materialized at Villarreal in his final years was just amazing . But unfortunately many  tend to remember him only for that feat – but considering where he came from and transforming Villarreal from “just another liga side” into a team competing and challenging the other two Spanish giants speaks volumes about him . Now he is set to face someone who in a way following his own foot steps . 

               Ever since I have seen him on the sidelines – the most familiar feature about all his teams is the Double pivot - defensive block . From the days of [ gonzalo – Pena / Josico - Marcos senna ] to [ wellington-Demichellis / Toulalan-camacho  ] that has provided defensive stability for his sides . It is not to say he strictly follows it , Pellegrini often tries to accommodate his best available players rather than trying to fit his players into a particular formation - like how he tried to get the best out of Riquelme by playing a 4-3-1-2 . 

                

Manchester city prominent starting line up / defensive block

                 This City side reminds me a lot of his first Villarreal side . which was also a  4-4-2 with Diego Forlan and Josep Mari up-top .With city he has yaya Toure and Fernandinho – very identical box to box midfielders playing different roles . Both are not holding midfielders – some might point out Yaya was played in a single pivot at Barcelona , but then you also have to remember why they sold him . This may sound like a “Lobanovskyi model ” but  City have problems defending between their lines - which is mainly due to their inability to maintain the defensive block .

City's Attacking Prowess 

                City have scored an incredible 115 goals this season ( I don’t know how much it will be by the time this blog gets done ) . Spent hours watching all of them – thanks to their well maintained official website . What makes them so dangerous is their simple but incisive passing with clever movements .

Manchester city offensive set-up .

                City have a very lopsided attack . But that doesn’t necessarily mean the chances created are predominantly form one flank of the attack . 22.2% of their chances have come form the right flank and 19.2% form the left . which isn’t that big a fluctuation considering those stats includes dead ball situations – will requires a pro analysis to come to any conclusion . But the point to be taken is they are equally potent from both flanks .

                David Silva – the little magician is the heart beat of City . Don’t get me wrong – the lung busting runs of Yaya Toure , clinical finishing in front of goal from their strikers are all part of a total package which is orchestrated by him .  On paper he is their left sided midfielder in a 4-4-2 , but in reality he is their no 10 , always drifting inside and switching flank to flank to overload and to thread in passes for Kun / Negredo . Which is why their attack is so lopsided ,  the only genuine width on the left coming form Kolarov . He was played in a 442 against Arsenal and in a 4231 against Bayern Munich . This could be an area of concern when playing against higher pressing sides . Having said that David Silva is their most creative player – infact he is also the most creative player in Premier League this season . If you have problems accepting that read this .

Silva in a 4231 ( left ) in a 442 ( right ) credits - Squawka

                City’s movement in the final third is very simple and clever . Pellegrini’s early success in premier League doesn’t really surprise me given the space you get to exploit in PL is considerably larger than La liga . City are good at making decoy movements – one such instance against Spurs ( in the pic below ) Navas temporarily slots into a #10 role , nasri has taken out Sandro ( only holding mid ) , Kun makes a run into that space – navas attracts the only free CB ( dawson ) which leaves  space behind – Kun makes a simple 1-2 with Negredo into that space to face Lloris 1 v 1 . Almost similar one against Manchester united . Sharp , incisive and clever movement . 

Decoy runs - vs Spurs ( top ) - vs Manchester United ( bottom )

                Facing city ( especially at Etihad ) is giving your defensive organization a stern test  . Liverpool with their hard pressing game and Chelsea with their compact defensive block are the ones who have stood out . The margin for error is so minimum – all it takes is a lapse in concentration for a moment . City’s ability to pin the opponents down and pick out passes / make runs into spaces is sublime . two such examples - overloading one flank and creating space for Zabaleta to run into ( Monreal should have done better there ) . Henderson and Coutinho switched off for a moment - only for Navas to run into the space . 

 vs Arsenal ( top ) - vs Liverpool ( bottom ) 

  

              The biggest test for City this season so far was Bayern Munich – the best side in Europe . City were thoroughly outplayed by Bayern at Etihad . Two months later more of a second string City side came back from 2 goals down to beat Bayern at Allianz .

How did City beat Bayern Munich at Allianz ?

                The answer lies in the formation and personnel . At Allianz arena Pellegrini played Fernandinho / Javi Garcia in a double pivot with David Silva ahead of them - at Etihad it was a 4-4-2 with Nasri and Navas flanking Fernandinho / Yaya . Nasri was asked to tuck in to be the 3^rd midfielder to not get overloaded in the middle . Guardiola's Bayern play a 4-1-4-1 very similar to Barcelona model . In order to match numbers in the center , they had to leaves spaces out wide . In the second half Aguero dropped deeper to mark Lahm ( who was unmarked for most of the first half )  , which inturn reduced City's threat . 

Manchester City vs Bayern Munich at Etihad 

                Apart from the jittery first 20 minutes City did exceptionally well to win against Bayern in the 2nd leg without Yaya Toure , Kun Aguero and Negredo . Bayern had their share of absence too . Pellegrini opted for a 4-2-3-1 in that game with Silva playing behind Dzeko . Stand out performers of the night were James Milner and Pablo Zabaleta . With this formation they were able to compete with Bayern for every ball without having to sacrifice the balance of the team . 

              The heat map comparisons of both the home and away leg against Bayern ( below pic ) . Number of failed passes through the middle for Bayern in the 1^st leg was 7 and in the second leg was 15 . Its no rocket science , City played a more defensive combo of Fernandinho / Javi Garcia and David Silva often sharing the defensive duties .Which limited Bayern to more sideway passes  in the 2^nd leg . City were much more balanced , usually they give you a lopsided feel .  Pellegrini's Malaga had a lopsided attack when Santi cazrola was there ( later replaced by Isco – which turned the side into more a counter attacking one ) . In the 1^st leg city were dragged all over , outnumbered and for most part of the game outrun . As I did point out before They have problems defending between lines . One way to minimize it is by pressing in numbers  – for that you need to optimize positional play . Which I haven’t seen city do this season .

Bayern Munich heat map 3-1 win ( left ) , 3-2 loss (right )

                Why only compare City’s performance against Bayern ? why not against sides like Liverpool or Arsenal ? – might have popped up for many of you . Bayern  ( under Pep ) play a brand of football which is very similar to Barcelona . They set up a 4-1-4-1  , press higher up the pitch and love possession .  The City vs Liverpool game was played at a tempo – which we wont see against Barcelona . Just for the simple reason that it doesnt suite their style and they will slow the tempo to keep up the pressing rate at different spells .  

Injury concerns 

                Sergio Aguero will miss the 1^st leg and doubtful for the second , same with Samir Nasri . Two crucial players for Pellegrini . As a football fan wanted a full strength squads from both the clubs . Given what happened against Bayern  and Aguero’s injury , playing a 5 man midfield wouldnt be a bad ploy against Barcelona . The space Ivanovic had on the right flank throughout the game against City was alarming - considering city will be up against Dani Alves gives all the more reasons for Pellegrini to play an extra midfielder . 

                It’s a very fine line between being brave and being naïve , playing two strikers against Bayern was  a brave decision which turned out to be naïve . Have to see what the “Engineer” has in store for this big clash . 

Provided all the current lot stay fit – my starting 11 for city against Barcelona 

                Barcelona on the other hand are under constant evolution this season , will try and post my opinions in the next article .